Thanks again, George, for bringing us the news that counts. Politics has become a game of poker, and in this vein, Carney vs. Trump would normally be a foregone conclusion. Not only does Carney hold a few aces up his sleeve, as this article and your previous ones have outlined, but the evil King has no concept of a straight face or any real comprehension of how to use fact versus fiction in a negotiation.
But…we're talking about making a deal with a man who makes and unmakes deals with little regard for formal signatures. That's the part poker can't model. In poker, once the hand's played, the chips move and stay moved. With this administration, the chips move, get photographed moving, and then quietly move back the moment it's convenient, with a straight face and no acknowledgement anything happened at all.
Which is exactly why leading with Churchill Falls instead of trade is the smarter play than it first looks. A tariff concession is a promise about tomorrow, and tomorrow is precisely where this man's word has never once held. A 985-megawatt export line into a US grid already straining under AI demand is a fact today, humming, delivering power whether or not Trump feels like honouring anything he said last Tuesday. Carney isn't just showing Trump a card. He's showing him something the King can't later pretend was never dealt, because Massachusetts will be able to feel the difference in its own electricity bill. That's not a hand played against Trump's bluffing. It's a hand played against his memory, and this King is well known for having none that inconveniences him.
Second point: Electricity to trade will be attractive to the Americans and at least is a positive lever.
It also will remind Trump of Ford’s threat to surcharge energy to northern tier states. I bet Trump doesn’t think we would do anything really “nasty” for fear of his revenge. Because of his sense that he’s fearsome, we can use that to our advantage. I’m sure PM Carney has already thought about what retaliation would be most effective and how it can be surgically applied.
We won’t/can’t hold back on Red River and Columbia River flows in a year of drought, or stop helping with wildfires, but everything Canadian needs to be surcharged, export taxed or otherwise made painful enough so that the US feels at least the same pain as Canada. And Canadians of all partisan stripes need to support the Carney government as we navigate these rapids rather than complain.
To hell with exporting electricity to Massachusetts! Connect an all Canada distribution grid. We must ensure we have ample electricity first. Good update, George.
I disagree that Lutnick has authority to do anything like have final say on the options. He has never had any real authority except to recommend to Trump. He knows Trump’s latest direction, but that isn’t the same as knowing the mind of Trump, eg, what he will be in the mood to do when the deal if any goes to him for approval. Lutnick may be the sycophant in the room, but the only decision maker is Trump.
Sadly it's not an actual deal, only another MOU.....no projected start date, no signed contracts....they have til March to work out an actual deal or to extend.
There was already an MOU on this proposed project, MOU stands for Memorandum of Understanding....it basically lays out the framework for a deal if one is eventually signed. This update expires in March of next year.....unless the parties agree to extend the deadline.
It's like our "deal" for new submarines. All that has happened there is that the Carney government has chosen which company it will try to negotiate a deal with.....TKMS (I'm not sure I have the company name right, it's a four letter acronym starting with T....I'm too lazy to look it up right now).....
We might get new subs and this hydro electric project might move forward.....but there are no firm contracts yet.
Another one is the high speed rail project that they've been talking about since I was in high school (that was in the 1980s).......it's all just talk right now and tons of money being spent on consultants.
Thanks again, George, for bringing us the news that counts. Politics has become a game of poker, and in this vein, Carney vs. Trump would normally be a foregone conclusion. Not only does Carney hold a few aces up his sleeve, as this article and your previous ones have outlined, but the evil King has no concept of a straight face or any real comprehension of how to use fact versus fiction in a negotiation.
But…we're talking about making a deal with a man who makes and unmakes deals with little regard for formal signatures. That's the part poker can't model. In poker, once the hand's played, the chips move and stay moved. With this administration, the chips move, get photographed moving, and then quietly move back the moment it's convenient, with a straight face and no acknowledgement anything happened at all.
Which is exactly why leading with Churchill Falls instead of trade is the smarter play than it first looks. A tariff concession is a promise about tomorrow, and tomorrow is precisely where this man's word has never once held. A 985-megawatt export line into a US grid already straining under AI demand is a fact today, humming, delivering power whether or not Trump feels like honouring anything he said last Tuesday. Carney isn't just showing Trump a card. He's showing him something the King can't later pretend was never dealt, because Massachusetts will be able to feel the difference in its own electricity bill. That's not a hand played against Trump's bluffing. It's a hand played against his memory, and this King is well known for having none that inconveniences him.
Second point: Electricity to trade will be attractive to the Americans and at least is a positive lever.
It also will remind Trump of Ford’s threat to surcharge energy to northern tier states. I bet Trump doesn’t think we would do anything really “nasty” for fear of his revenge. Because of his sense that he’s fearsome, we can use that to our advantage. I’m sure PM Carney has already thought about what retaliation would be most effective and how it can be surgically applied.
We won’t/can’t hold back on Red River and Columbia River flows in a year of drought, or stop helping with wildfires, but everything Canadian needs to be surcharged, export taxed or otherwise made painful enough so that the US feels at least the same pain as Canada. And Canadians of all partisan stripes need to support the Carney government as we navigate these rapids rather than complain.
Let’s work on an export tax on crude oil and potash. The feds can redirect those funds to offset tariff pain.
To hell with exporting electricity to Massachusetts! Connect an all Canada distribution grid. We must ensure we have ample electricity first. Good update, George.
Please hold that promise Mr Carney- no deal is better than a bad deal
I disagree that Lutnick has authority to do anything like have final say on the options. He has never had any real authority except to recommend to Trump. He knows Trump’s latest direction, but that isn’t the same as knowing the mind of Trump, eg, what he will be in the mood to do when the deal if any goes to him for approval. Lutnick may be the sycophant in the room, but the only decision maker is Trump.
Beautiful, from an elderly Canuck that's paying attention. Thank you.
Thank you, appreciate your wonderful comments. Take care
Deadline, that's so funny. The is Trump you're talking about.
Sadly it's not an actual deal, only another MOU.....no projected start date, no signed contracts....they have til March to work out an actual deal or to extend.
I’m not sure why your reference to an MOU is about. Please share what it’s all about @Gordie Canuck
There was already an MOU on this proposed project, MOU stands for Memorandum of Understanding....it basically lays out the framework for a deal if one is eventually signed. This update expires in March of next year.....unless the parties agree to extend the deadline.
It's like our "deal" for new submarines. All that has happened there is that the Carney government has chosen which company it will try to negotiate a deal with.....TKMS (I'm not sure I have the company name right, it's a four letter acronym starting with T....I'm too lazy to look it up right now).....
We might get new subs and this hydro electric project might move forward.....but there are no firm contracts yet.
Another one is the high speed rail project that they've been talking about since I was in high school (that was in the 1980s).......it's all just talk right now and tons of money being spent on consultants.
That's generally how these things get started. I don't doubt that the contracts will happen.
Let the ink dry on the agreement before to start trashing it. Must really duck to be you!
I really appreciate the news that you deliver. I have absolute faith in our PM to either get the best deal for Canada or refuse to sign a bad deal.